The debate "Does Bloomberg actually think he can win" was started by
November 25, 2019, 10:46 am.
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Trump has a pretty high approval rating among republicans. i don't think there is any chance Bloomberg could take enough support from him to cost him the core republican states. But Bloomberg probably could undermine Warren or Sanders in some key battleground states. If bloomberg ran as an independent, he could probably pick up 10-20% of republicans. But he would pick up 20-30% of democats and clinch a victory for trump.
I think Bloomberg is just out to protect his money from being taxed. He would rather re-elect trump than see someone come in who would bring real change.
i think you may have hit the nail on the head with a planned independent run, but im not sure that will trip Bernie/warren any more then trump. bloomberg isnt exactly a democrat, he was a republican when he was major. i can see just as many Republicans disenfranchised with trump voting for him as democrats not quite down with bernie/warren big spending.
considering how extreme for modern america bernie/warren are, and how insane trump is... he may win as a 3rd party, or take votes equally from both sides.
I think that was "Some people are more equal than others."
the one regarding corruption measures and whether they negate high quality candidates.
also, which previous conversation did you want to continue?
Bloomberg has decided not to run in the 1st 4 states. He is not taking any contributions, he will entirely self fund his campaign. This means he cannot qualify for any debate because they have a requirement for the number of unique donors to a campaign.
So in addition to his many problems as a candidate I laid out before, he won't get a single vote until super Tuesday, he will get no visibility in debates. I don't see how he could possibly win. If he does think that, then he is betting entirely on his money buying the primary. He dropped like 30 million dollars on ads in 1 day. The largest single ad buy ever I believe.
But buying the election seems like it is incredibly unlikely to work. I saw an interesting video the other day by Sam Seder. His theory was that this isn't about the primary at all. He is setting himself up to run as an independent in the general election if warren or sanders win. That way he prevent them from winning a general election which will protect his money from actually being taxed properly. That seems to make a lot more sense as a motivation than thinking you can drop into a primary at the last second, show up to no debates, not even run in the 1st 4 states and still think you can win.
he is betting on the fact that many Americans may not want to go as far left as Bernie and Warren. He probably knows he will struggle through the primary, but he thinks he has a good chance in the general.
btw, i cant find our previous convo, wanted to continue it.
So given all of that, and that Bloomberg has a big polling division so he definitely has tested this out before making his decision, my question is why would he run.
Is he delusional enough to think that he could win?
is he trying to be a spoiling candidate to undermine support from warren so that Biden or Butigieg can win? I mean he might be able to take a few points from them, but that would likely primarily benefit Sanders, which I am certain he wouldn't want.
Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire former mayor of new york has officially announced he is running for the democratic nomination. I'm honestly not sure why he would do that or what he hopes to gain. From where I am sitting, he has a 0% chance of winning the nomination. And even if he somehow managed it, he would absolutely lose to trump.
This guy is the absolute worst combination of beliefs to win.
1) he pushed super racist policies. As recently as January of this year he defended stop and frisk. This was a policy in new york where police were allowed to stop people at random and search them. This was a hugely racist policy. Even though black and latino people were a minority in the city, they were the primary people police were targetting. The policy was a huge failure. The vast, vast majority of people they did this to were innocent people going about their day. The courts ruled it unconstitutional. But Bloomberg was defending it right up to the moment he decided he wanted to be president. Now he says he realizes it was wrong. No one is going to buy that. He also pushed for the monitoring of muslim people in new york which included spying on them at schools and meals. It found absolutely no useful information.
2) He is a billionaire running in a field where trying to get money out of politics is one of the main talking points. This is just so tone deaf it is ridiculous.
3) He believes in nanny state laws. He banned large beverages in new york to try to get people to drink less sugary beverages. That is just stupid. This sort of thing is exactly the caricature of the left that trump and the right use. He would be absolutely blasted for this if he somehow won the primary.
in general, Bloomberg is fiscally right wing, but socially left wing. He doesn't want to fix any of the structural problems in america. He likes the broken system america has because he used that system to make his money. He doesn't want corporate interests to be removed from politics, he wants to further entrench corporate power over politics by putting the owner of a massive news organization in the white house.